Shun Xin Agriculture (000860) Terminal Survey Series 3: Ordinary aging is still selling fast, the price of the center is moving down, and the treasure is moving slightly.

Shun Xin Agriculture (000860) Terminal Survey Series 3: Ordinary aging is still selling fast, the price of the center is moving down, and the treasure is moving slightly.
Investment Highlights: Event: We visited 27 large-scale supermarkets in 14 cities in Beijing and Shanghai to investigate the retail situation of light bottle wine terminals.This issue summarizes the survey data and samples obtained from the survey on July 25, 2019 for investors’ reference. Investment Ratings and Estimates: Maintain profit forecast, predicting net profit attributable to mothers to be 11 in 2019-2021.9.8 billion, 16.5 billion, 21.4.4 billion, an increase of 61%, 38% and 武汉夜网论坛 30% each year. The current corresponding PE for 2019-2021 is 28x, 21x, 16x.It is estimated that the net profit of the liquor business in 2019-2021 will be 14 respectively.5 billion, 18 billion, 21.500 million, the current sustainable corresponding liquor business PE in 2019-2021 are 23x, 19x, 16x respectively, maintain BUY rating.We are optimistic about the company’s core logic: 1. Focus on the main business of wine and meat and solve the problem of diversification.Currently focusing on wine and meat, the real estate business is expected to reduce the drag on the main business through the initial sales of existing projects.2. Liquor business still has a lot of room for improvement in market share and net profit.Niulanshan has a strong brand power, product power, channel power, and pragmatic management team. It began to spur 青岛夜网 growth in the second half of 2017. In the future, the growth space will focus on national expansion. It will increase market share, price, and net profitFrom three perspectives, there is still plenty of room for growth in liquor business. Price situation: The price of ordinary aging in Beijing has been lowered, and the price of ordinary aging in Shanghai has been higher than that in Beijing, and the promotion has increased.The 42-degree aging price range has expanded. The price in Beijing is basically 12-15 yuan, and the price center has moved downward. The price in Shanghai is basically 15-17 yuan, which is higher than Beijing.The 52-degree aging price range has expanded. The price in Beijing is 13-19 yuan, and the price center has moved downward. The price in Shanghai is 18-19 yuan, which is higher than Beijing.The 43-degree refined aging price range narrowed, and the price was basically 25 yuan, with little change from the previous period, and the price difference between Beijing and Shanghai was not large.The price of 52-degree and 39-degree treasures aged slightly increased in Beijing.The price range of Beijing’s 52-year-old treasures has narrowed.Compared with the previous issue, the promotion has increased. Age of goods: ordinary aged wines are still fast and the age of goods is significantly lower than competing products.In fact, the 42-degree aging is mainly from March to June 19, and the latest age is July 19, Shanghai’s age is obviously updated, and sales are still fast.The 52-degree aging is mainly based on the goods from April to June of 19th. The speed of Beijing’s sales has remained stable, and the age of goods in Shanghai has been significantly updated.The crack of the 43-year-old refined aging goods interval crack, the remaining part of the inventory in the second half of 2018, the latest goods age to July 19, Beijing’s sales speed has improved, Shanghai sales speed has improved.The 52-year-old treasure ageing goods range runs through. The 18-year and 19-year goods are merged. The latest age is March 19, and the sales have improved.The 39-year-old treasures have a wide age range. The latest age is May 19, with total sales.The 52-year-old 100-year-old treasures have a large age range in Beijing. Shanghai is basically a 19-year age. The latest age is June 19, and Beijing ‘s sales have improved, and Shanghai ‘s sales have accelerated.From a horizontal perspective, the age of common aging products is significantly shorter than that of competing products, and the sales momentum has changed significantly.